Regarding the latest measles outbreak he writes:
If the vaccine for measles -- in the U.S., this vaccine is the combination measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) injection -- really did work as claimed, then all the measles cases identified at Disneyland would have been in unvaccinated people.
If Jonathan had looked at what the CDC claims about the MMR in the pink book, he would know that the MMR vaccine efficacy isn't 100% (as Jonathan suggests) but around 95% for one shot and 99% for two doses.
Is such a high efficacy reflected in the current outbreak? Let's take a look at the numbers...
Out of the cases where the vaccination status was known, 28 people were unvaccinated.
About 90% of Americans have had two doses of the MMR, for every unvaccinated person in the USA there are about 9 vaccinated people in the USA. Therefore if measles affected unvaccinated and vaccinated people equally we would expect there to be 9 times more cases in vaccinated people than unvaccinated people. This would be about 252 cases in vaccinated people in the current outbreak.
There were 6 cases of measles in vaccinated people.
Six cases of measles in vaccinated people is 246 (or 97.6%) fewer cases than what we'd expect if measles affected vaccinated people no differently to unvaccinated people.
If somebody wants to claim that the MMR isn't effective they need to be able to explain why unvaccinated people are disproportionally represented in measles outbreaks.
No comments:
Post a Comment